A Look Back at Stroud's Predecessors at No. 2
There have been 14 rookie starting quarterbacks over the past decade but just two have produced winning records. Can Texans signal-caller CJ Stroud buck the trend?
These are the last five QBs taken No. 2 overall in the NFL Draft. Only three of the five are still in the league. None of them enter 2023 as a starter. Only one of their teams had a winning record last year.
Zach Wilson, BYU, 2021
Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina, 2017
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State, 2016
Marcus Mariota, Oregon, 2015
Robert Griffin III, Baylor, 2012
Are you excited about the player C.J. Stroud will be yet?
As we enter his rookie season, there’s plenty of excitement surrounding Houston’s newly installed starter. However, it’s important to look at those who came before him and how things worked out for them to get a better sense of what to expect this season. Let’s survey four key markers for the last five passers who entered the league at No. 2, how their careers started, and why.
Experience in college: Stroud entered the NFL with two full seasons as a starter under his belt. That puts him in the middle of the pack among the previous five. Mariota had three full seasons as a starter, while Wilson started most of his three years at BYU. Stroud is way more seasoned than Trubisky, who sat until his final season in Chapel Hill. He most closely resembles Wentz, who started as a junior, then again as a senior, though he missed almost half his final season with a broken wrist.
NFL coaching staff: This one is harder to forecast for Stroud, obviously, though there’s excitement league-wide about the group Demeco Ryans has assembled. Trubisky was mostly surrounded by veteran, but nondescript, NFL offensive coaches, as was Mariota. Wentz had two respected QB tutors at his disposal in head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich, but that’s nothing compared to RGIII (get this – his rookie coaching staff included Mike and Kyle Shanahan, Matt LaFleur, Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel). Stroud’s situation most closely resembles Wilson’s, as he had a first-year head coach, Robert Saleh, with a defensive background, along with an offensive coordinator, Mike LaFleur, who is well-schooled in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, like Houston’s Bobby Slowik.
When did they start?: Stroud will start from Day 1, obviously. Only Trubisky, among the five, had to wait (he started Week 4 of his rookie season).
What was the team’s record the year before?: For most, the teams’ respective statuses as holders of the second pick in the draft were well-earned. The pre-Wilson Jets and pre-Mariota Titans had each gone 2-14. The Redskins pre-RGIII? 5-11. The Eagles, who traded into No. 2 after finishing 7-9 the year before, were probably the closest to mediocre. The Bears, who finished 3-13 the year before Trubisky, most closely resemble the Texans’ 3-13-1 2022 mark.
In summation, Stroud comes to the league similar to Wentz in college experience, surrounded by a staff similar to Wilson’s, starting in Week 1 like most did, and joining a team most similar to Trubisky’s in record. None of his predecessors parallels that closely to Stroud, though that’s probably a good thing; none are in the “Canton, someday” discussion.
There are success stories, of course. Philadelphia chose Syracuse’s Donovan McNabb No. 2 overall in 1999, and the Colts took LSU’s Bert Jones second way back in 1973. Ole Miss’ Archie Manning (1971, Saints); NC State’s Roman Gabriel (1962, Rams); and Wake Forest’s Norm Snead (1961, Redskins) weren’t half bad, either. All in all, however, it’s probably smart to leaven the excitement with patience when it comes to Stroud. While hopes are high, there’s a good chance reality won’t match expectations, at least this year.
(Photo Credit: Houston Texans)